ig news weeks like elections or fed meetings: how do you tell what's already priced in for btc?

so every time theres a big event coming up, election, fed rate decision, war news, or anything else... my whole feed becomes ppl saying btc will moon or dump after it.

then it happens and price does... basically nothing. or sometimes even the opposite lol. everyone says "it was priced in" but i honestly never know beforehand what was actually priced in.

how do you guys even figure out what the market already expects before a big event? not looking for calls... just trying to understand how to read it