the "stablecoins up number up" playbook is cooked. $4.7B flowed in since March and BTC barely moved.

been watching exchange flows pretty obsessively lately and something felt off. ran 60 days of CryptoQuant across Binance, Coinbase, OKX, Kraken, Bybit. every $3B+ stablecoin window since 2021 (Q3 '21, Jan '23, Oct '23, Feb '24, Nov '24) pumped BTC 12% or more within a month. this time? nothing. GBTC and FBTC bled ~$1.9B in redemptions and market makers had to sell spot to settle those, which basically just drank the milkshake. you could actually see it on the order book, mid April and early May had these weird absorption walls on the bid side that just kept getting eaten. i had daily scrapes running on MuleRun so the data was already sitting there when the pattern clicked. sample size is literally five so i could be full of it. but it really looks like TradFi redemption flow is the new shadow variable that breaks the old stablecoin signal.