I don't have all the answers and I am making some assumptions that might not be accurate, but I am a longtime finance professional with 2 certifications in the industry so I believe there is some validity with my hypothesis.

In my view, the price of bitcoin can be looked as an index on the US government's fiscal responsibility scorecard. The higher the price of Bitcoin goes up, the more likely there is some fiscal irresponsibility on the government's part. So why is the price going up today? I see 2 things that don't make macroeconomic sense. 1) The rate on the 30 year bonds are down from 5.27% to 5.23% AND 2) The Yen currency has substantially strengthened today from 1USD/159YEN to 1USD/155.5 YEN.

Scenario 2 is happening because the Japanese are offloading the US bond holdings in the hundreds of billions of dollars which weakens the US dollar, lowers bond prices (which raises rates), and strengthens the YEN currency. The offloading action should have raised the rates on government bonds. The only buyer capable of absorbing that kind of volume from the Japanese would be the US government.

So you have to ask the trillion dollar question: Where did the US government get the money from to buy up the bonds in order to keep the rates low/lower?? I think the money printer is going brrrr.

Some of you here probably remember Blockchain.info from the early days of Bitcoin.

We’ve recently started bringing the Blockchain.info identity back to our Explorer and, more importantly, rebuilding the actual experience behind it.

I work on the Explorer team. I’m posting here less to announce the rebrand and more because I’d genuinely like feedback from people who still use Bitcoin explorers regularly.

We’re progressively rebuilding the Explorer page by page, and there’s a lot more we want to do around Bitcoin.

What would make a Bitcoin explorer genuinely better for you today?

For example:

• What frustrates you about existing Bitcoin explorers?
• What information do you usually look for after pasting a transaction or address?
• What Bitcoin-specific data or analytics are currently missing?
• Are there features from the old Blockchain.info Explorer that you’d actually want back?
• What would make you choose one explorer over another?

UX criticism is very welcome too. If something sucks, tell us.

This is still early, and I’d much rather build around what Bitcoin users actually find useful than just add features because they look good on a roadmap.

Bit of a random one. I was going through some old hard drives recently and found some Bitcoin I’d completely forgotten about.

I’m 28 now and honestly not sure what to do with it. Part of me wants to sell some, enjoy life a bit, travel, sort a few things out and put some money into other investments/businesses.

Then the other part of me is thinking I’ve gone this long without needing it, so why not just secure it properly and keep holding?

Definitely not going to say how much I found for obvious reasons ???? but it’s enough that I actually have to think seriously about what I do next.

I’m probably leaning towards selling some and keeping the rest in BTC. Life is short and I don’t want to be that guy who spends his whole life watching a number on a wallet go up without ever enjoying any of it.

What would you guys genuinely do? Sell some and enjoy the win, hold everything, or cash out completely and move on?

Title. There is no way that Bitcoin doesn't succeed in taking the gold's role of world's best non-sovereign asset. It might take a while, but the direction is clear...

Link to article: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgy51xlz39o

The lightning network is a second-layer solution on top of the Bitcoin blockchain that enables quick, cheap and scalable Bitcoin payments.

Here is the place to discuss and learn more about lightning!

Ask your questions about lightning

Provide reviews, feedback, comparisons of LN apps, services, websites etc

Learn about new LN features, development, apps

Link to good quality resources (articles, wikis etc)

Resources:

• Here is an awesome list of resources: https://bitcoinfo.org/lightning.html

• Want to test out your lightning fire power? tip the Bitcoin devs! https://bitcoindevlist.com/

• Previous threads: Search

• Lnbook getting closer towards being finished and can already be seen at: https://github.com/lnbook/lnbook

• Lightning Dedicated YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/renepickhardt

• Also there is the playlist by chaincode labs: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpLH33TRghT17_U3as2P3vHfAGL8pSOOY

• Lightning stores: https://www.lightningnetworkstores.com/

• Learn more and talk about lightning right here in r/Bitcoin, r/bitcoinbeginners and r/thelightningnetwork

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Worked a double last week, pocketed some cash tips, and tried to move a chunk into my account to buy more bitcoin. Bank flagged it. Called me. Wanted to know what the money was for. I'm a line cook, I make tips in cash, this is not a complicated situation.

That whole thing got me thinking about why I keep stacking sats on a restaurant paycheck. After getting absolutely wrecked on NFTs a couple years back I told myself I was done with crypto. Took a long break. But I kept coming back to bitcoin specifically because it's the only one where the core pitch hasn't changed. You own it, you hold your keys, nobody calls you to ask why you moved your own money.

The bank thing isn't even about a huge amount. It just keeps reminding me that the traditional system treats your money like it's theirs and you're borrowing it. Every time they pull that I end up buying a little more bitcoin out of spite, which is probably not a great investment strategy, but here we are.

Curious if anyone else has had their bank get weird about regular transfers while stacking. How often does this actually happen and at what point did you just say forget it and go full self custody.

Buy bitcoin, get your self-custody security setup right, hodl.

All roads lead to bitcoin!

Looking to start getting into bitcoin and discovered the grayscale ETF. Thoughts and opinions on this? From the way I see it, owning shares of an ETF that holds bitcoin instead of actually owning the bitcoin yourself kind of defeats the purpose of getting into bitcoin in the first place considering the conspiracy, if you will, behind it. Am I missing something here? Would like to hear what you think of this, thanks

Money is useful. Bitcoin is the best money.

So if course it's worth something.

I’m plan to withdraw around under 10k AUD from Trust Wallet to my bank account which is NAB or Revolut or Westpac, is there any hold or restriction or the bank gonna contract you when you withdraw first time into the bank account. The amount I plan is 5k-8k first.

I'm a computer science student from Temuco, Chile, and over the last months I've gotten pretty deeply obsessed with cryptography.

It started with public cryptographic puzzles, but eventually I stopped treating them as “find the password” problems and started building actual research infrastructure around them.

So far I've built things like:

• exact independent verifiers for solved cryptographic constructions
• a scientific ledger that preserves failed hypotheses instead of deleting them
• representation-search systems
• model-identifiability experiments
• tools for separating search failure from model failure
• a research interface for tracking the whole program

One of the stranger results was reducing 362,806 short transformation programs to 14,174 unique semantic classes by canonicalizing equivalent representations.

The full project is here:
https://github.com/benjacasas02/independent-cryptography-research

I'm trying to figure out whether work like this could become a real independent research path rather than just something I do obsessively on my own.

I'd especially love feedback from people doing Bitcoin security, cryptanalysis, reverse engineering or related research.

'We failed': El Reno admits oversight after 3.8 million-gallon water leak at Bitcoin mining facility https://www.news9.com/oklahoma-city-news/oklahoma-el-reno-water-leak-bitcoin-mining-facility-oversight

What is one thing you believed about Bitcoin when you first bought it that you completely changed your mind about after spending more time in the market?

We talk a lot about using multisig with hardware wallets from different vendors as protection against a single point of failure. For example, a 2-of-3 setup with a Ledger, Trezor, and Coldcard (not anymore). But there is another potential single point of failure that I rarely see discussed: the software used to construct, coordinate, and broadcast the transaction. If the entire multisig transaction workflow happens inside a single software wallet, aren't we still trusting that application to correctly construct the transaction, display what we're actually signing, handle PSBTs correctly, and broadcast the final transaction? A more robust approach could be to diversify the software workflow as well.

For example:

Create the transaction in Electrum.

Export the PSBT.

Partially sign it with the Ledger.

Export the updated PSBT.

Import it into Trezor Suite.

Sign it with the Trezor.

Take the fully signed transaction and broadcast it through another independent application or node. The idea isn't that this makes multisig magically more secure. Rather, it removes the assumption that one piece of software must be trusted for the entire transaction lifecycle. Hardware wallet vendor diversity protects against a compromised or defective hardware wallet. But if every transaction is still constructed, processed and broadcast through the same software stack, there may still be a common point of failure. So my question is: does anyone actually practice software/application diversity as part of their multisig operational security? And more importantly, are there technical reasons why this isn't practical or doesn't provide much additional security?

How about 100x? I was just thinking, if I owned, for the sake of argument, 1000 BTC, would I still do the self-custody thing and keep my keys on a single Trezor or Ledger? What would I do different? Is the different thing I would do, the thing I should be doing now?

Bitcoin smashed a 24% gain in August to clear $78k for its best month in two years, but macro reality is about to crash the party this Friday. With Fed rate-hike odds already pricing in at 66% after Jackson Hole, a hot jobs report will give the Fed a green light to tighten screws, sucking the liquidity right out of this rally. We are officially one bad economic print away from a major local top.

Will you hedge or buy the dip?

Source: IB Times

A popular macro theory links Bitcoin's price cycles to the US political calendar: accumulate Bitcoin roughly 2 years before presidential elections during lower prices, and sell after.

1. The 2012 Election Cycle

- 2 years before the election (November 2010): Bitcoin was at the very beginning of its journey, and its price was only about $0.20 – $0.30.

- During the election (November 2012): The price had risen and hovered around $11 – $13.

- After the election (throughout 2013): A powerful bull market began, during which the price skyrocketed to an all-time peak of nearly $1,100 by late 2013.

2. The 2016 Election Cycle

- 2 years before the election (November 2014): Following the crash of the 2013 bubble, the market was in a prolonged correction, and the price of Bitcoin was roughly $320 – $380.

- During the election (November 2016): At the time of the vote, the asset was worth about $700 – $710.

- After the election (2017): Post-election airdrops/rallies and mass adoption led to a historic surge up to $20,000 in December 2017.

3. The 2020 Election Cycle

- 2 years before the election (November 2018): The market was experiencing the harsh bottom of a bear market, and Bitcoin dropped to $3,800 – $4,000 (following the 2017 peak).

- During the election (November 2020): On the days of the vote, the price was around $13,500 – $15,000.

- After the election (late 2020 — spring 2021): Liquidity stimuli and post-election optimism pushed the price to a previous high of $69,000 (in November 2021).

4. The 2024 Election Cycle

- 2 years before the election (November 2022): Amid the FTX collapse, the market hit another bottom, and Bitcoin traded in the $16,000 – $17,000 range. This was an ideal entry point for a two-year buy under this strategy.

- During the election (November 2024): At the time of Donald Trump's victory, Bitcoin was trading above $70,000 – $75,000.

- After the election (late 2024 — 2025): The market entered a massive post-election rally, breaking all-time records and rising above $126,000 in October 2025.

Conclusion: Across all four cycles, the price 2 years before the election turned out to be significantly lower (at the bottom or in a deep accumulation phase) than at the time of the election itself or during the active growth period following it.

Wildly hypothetical question, please do not downvote me to oblivion. I am not excusing anyone here, kinda playing the devil's advocate out of curiosity.

So, a guy tried some random keys (coming from a space of points, a space with a reduced dimension than the expected 256 bit entropy, but that's all very rhetorical and technical) with a computer and broadcast some transactions (basically, signatures) using the keys he discovered with his own computer. That is it at a basic level, right?

He did not use a wrench attack, did not break into someone's home to steal a paper with passwords, did not drug or interact with any victim to coerce a password out, did not send scam texts promising investment returns. He is just coding on his computer talking to the Blockchain.

So is that really...illegal? I mean hypothetically, if he is caught, and he hires the top law firm in the world, what charge would stick? So far as I can see, he is just playing a guess-the-number game with the Blockchain sitting in his basement.

And if we allow (to the extent the Bitcoin advocates and Libertarians have any capacity to allow) a government to prosecute him, then what kind of precedent does it set with regard to a state's power to prosecute someone purely for interacting with the Blockchain and trying signatures/key combinations?

Are we ready for a political regime (basically, the state machinery) to come in and tell everyone how exactly am I supposed to interact with the Blockchain, that takes precedence over whatever the consensus protocol allows?

EDIT:

Yes, from the comments I can get there are laws and charges depending on jurisdiction that would stick. But I am far more concerned about the precedent that can be set by penalising someone for interacting with the Blockchain (a system not owned by a bank or a specific corporation) in a way that is just something the community did not like.

It opens a door to the political class to co-opt and regulate/alter the Blockchain in a way they deem convenient to protect a status quo or their regime so that any interaction outside the politically approved norm can be considered...well, illegal.

Welcome to Bitcoin 2.0, I guess, where there is a 100 page legal clause on what exactly a node runner can approve and what exactly a miner is allowed to include in a block?

Worst, seems like in this case, the whole Bitcoin community will cheer at the prospect of crucifying the coldcard thief for justice, welcoming such a possibility.

Whenever I invest in something other than BTC, I sometimes get this feeling that I should have just bought Bitcoin instead.

I recently got my salary and was deciding whether to put a large lump sum into BTC or invest it into my TFSA. I ended up putting the larger amount into my TFSA, and now I’m second-guessing that decision. I already have exposure to VT and QQQ in my TFSA (they use different tickers here), while I also hold VOO in a taxable account.

What I’m struggling with is the whole idea of “max out your TFSA as soon as possible.” I understand the tax-free benefit, but if I’m investing for the long term, wouldn’t investing later simply mean having an additional year of tax-free growth/room available in the future?

I’m 28, so I have a very long investment horizon. Obviously, tax-free growth is valuable, but I have a strong conviction that BTC could be worth significantly more in the future than my QQQ and VT holdings. Because of that, I’m questioning whether I should really prioritize filling my TFSA as quickly as possible, or whether it makes more sense for me to put a larger percentage of my available money into BTC while still contributing enough to my TFSA.

I’m trying to take advantage of the bear market, but I’m finding that whenever I choose to invest more into my ETFs instead of BTC, I feel like I’m missing an opportunity.

For those who have a similar conviction toward Bitcoin, how do you balance that with diversification and the tax advantages of accounts like a TFSA?

I’ve noticed something interesting in my own trading.
When an account is small, it’s easy to imagine turning it into something much larger.
But after taking a loss, the mindset changes completely. You start thinking about recovering the money instead of following the strategy.
I wonder how many traders have experienced the same thing.

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Don’t have my ID right now, have all my other information.

Hey all, doing market research on structured products and how traders actually access it today and what they'd want to see better.

~5-mins survey, no pitch. Will share the results back with anyone who fills it out so you can see how the rest of the market answered

Survey link: https://survey.critohedge.com/

DM me if you want to chat about it directly.

Hi I'm exploring the design of an open-source, peer-to-peer protocol/application for construction contracts, particularly for environments where traditional escrow, arbitration and contract enforcement are expensive or unreliable.

The basic idea is to have no central server, custodian or marketplace. Clients would communicate directly over Tor/DHT and exchange the contractual information P2P: scope of work, milestones, deadlines, drawings/specifications, commercial terms, payment schedules, contractor guarantees, etc. The complete technical and commercial specification would be committed to through hashes.

Once the owner and contractor agree, the application creates a Bitcoin contract using Taproot/MuSig2. Funds would be compartmentalized per milestone rather than putting the entire project into a single pool. The contract would define the possible states and transitions in advance: milestone completion and partial payment, mutual agreement, disagreement, partial completion, abandonment, timeout, guarantee release/return, and potentially arbitration.

The normal path would be cooperative settlement using MuSig2. An arbitrator would not be a normal signer; instead, arbitration would be available through an alternative Taproot branch after predefined conditions or timeouts. The idea is that most disputes should ideally be resolved directly between the parties, with arbitration acting as a last resort.

The documents, communication and evidence would remain off-chain, while Bitcoin would primarily be used for settlement and enforcement of the economic consequences defined by the contract.

I'm also exploring an optional second layer using DLCs for foreign-exchange risk. For example, a contractor could hedge the exchange-rate exposure of a Bitcoin-denominated contract with a third party, using multiple independent oracles.

The goal is not to operate a marketplace, custody funds, charge fees, run an oracle, or maintain any centralized infrastructure. The intention would be to publish the protocol and a reference implementation in Rust under the MIT license, potentially with desktop and Android/F-Droid clients.

I'm not looking for implementation advice yet; I'm primarily looking for protocol-level criticism.

I'd particularly like to know:

Does the fundamental contract model make sense from a Bitcoin/cryptography perspective?

Are there obvious problems with the Taproot/MuSig2/state-machine approach?

Does the incentive and dispute model actually work? In particular, guarantees, partial completion, strategic defaults and the use of an arbitrator as a last resort.

this useful in practice? Or are there fundamental economic, legal, UX, privacy, or technical problems that make this approach impractical?

Those people who keep saying 40K october now be saying ill buy 40K at november

Will miners continue to make profit and be able pay electricity bills, if bitcoin stops making new highs?

Army veteran. Real name, public. Been quietly building a case for two years that he's Satoshi Nakamoto — and unlike every other claimant, he's not hiding behind lawyers or vague hints.

He's dumped an insane amount of material: domain records, old accounts, tax filings, timestamps that line up with Bitcoin's actual timeline going back to 1998.

I've been digging through it and honestly don't know where I land yet.

Ask me anything and I'll tell you what I know.

My sister in law keeps telling me her high yield savings account is all she needs and that bitcoin is just gambling. She is not dumb at all, she is actually pretty sharp with money, but every time I try to bring up why I have been stacking since 2017 the conversation dies fast. I get why it sounds sketchy from the outside. The volatility alone is enough to make anyone nope out of the conversation before it even starts.

The thing is I do not want to come across like I am recruiting her into something or hyping her up with price targets. That never works and honestly feels gross. But I also genuinely think having even a small position matters long term and I want her to get there on her own terms.

Has anyone had a real breakthrough moment explaining bitcoin to a skeptical but financially literate person? Not someone clueless, but someone who has read enough to have formed an opinion against it. What actually landed for them? Was it the fixed supply thing, was it the banking angle, was it just watching price long enough? Or does it just never work until someone is ready on their own and you are wasting your breath trying?

The first pause after roughly $3 billion of ETF inflows got treated like a warning signal, but bitcoin barely moved while oil jumped and stocks sold off after the US strikes on Iran. That price action matters more to me than one day of red flows. A market that needs nonstop ETF buying to stay up is fragile. A market that absorbs a pause, geopolitical risk and higher oil without falling apart may be building a stronger base than the headlines suggest. The missing piece is whether this holds for another week or two, not whether one flow chart looks ugly today. The bigger shift is that ETF flows are now being watched like a daily vote on bitcoin's future. That gives short-term traders a new scoreboard, but it also makes people forget that pension allocations and long-term holders do not move on a 24-hour news cycle.

how can one learn how to bitcoin?
with this day and age working one job isn’t enough.

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If you’re an early holder and still holding or recently sold. How did you manage to keep holding throughout all thoes crashes,fears,and all time highs? Also put in what year you bought and sold or if still holding. But congrats????

Gun to your head if you had to choose.

To clarify, the seed phrase created by Trezor and not self entropy like dice.

Is there a way to measure who is entering the BTC space? Is it just us who are already in it, or are there still new adopters?

Im 64yo and been in since 2017 - Im kind of wondering what the younger gen now thinks about BTC, I personally dont think it has the same allure or promise it once did - I also think tech is shaking the foundations of BTC - the markets have been bringing stable returns for quite a while. So there is lots of good safe investment options.

I dont think older people in my age group will ever understand or adopt BTC if theyre not in it allready. And if the younger coming up people are not seeing any glitter, BTC can fade away - the old guard - us HOLD'rs are not going to be keeping it alive forever.

I’ve been thinking about something lately.
It’s easy to say **“**buy the dip**”** when you’re watching the chart from the sidelines. But once you actually put your own money into BTC, even a 5–10% drop feels completely different.
I’m curious how other Bitcoin holders deal with this psychologically.
Do you set a price where you’ll sell before buying, or do you mainly follow a long-term thesis and ignore the short-term volatility?
I feel like managing your emotions is probably harder than understanding the Bitcoin cycle itself.

https://bitcoin.org/en/full-node#linux-instructions shows a signature that expired and nothing can get verified with it. Namely, the latest one: 01EA 5486 DE18 A882 D4C2 6845 90C8 019E 36C2 E964. I did not even tried the older ones.

https://bitcoincore.org/en/download/ instructions work smoothly.

Is there something I did wrong regarding the main website's instructions? Did anyone who has core managed to verify anything from there?

Why are there two websites to begin with? Doesn't this make it a bit confusing? Especially since they don't seem to even be in sync.

Most assets become harder to move exactly when you need to move them most.

If you have to leave a country quickly, cash can be seized, gold can be found, property stays behind, and bank access depends on institutions continuing to recognize your claim. With Bitcoin self-custody, access can be reconstructed from a memorized seed phrase after crossing a border with no physical representation of the wealth at all.

Just memorize 12 words and leave.

Bitcoin should be extremely interesting to preppers.
Just a small amount could be extremely helpful if you need to rebuild your life in another part of the world.

Why is this not talked about more in an increasingly unstable world?

I’ve been looking into how aggressively some of the larger Bitcoin mining companies are moving toward AI/HPC infrastructure, and the numbers are getting pretty interesting.

Riot Platforms alone announced a roughly $9.1 billion, 20-year AI data-center agreement. Averaged across the initial term, that’s around $1.25 million per day in contract revenue.

That’s obviously not the same thing as $1.25M/day in profit, but I think it explains a lot about why these companies are interested. Bitcoin mining income is volatile, block rewards keep getting cut in half, difficulty/network hashrate keeps increasing, and BTC’s percentage gains from cycle to cycle have been shrinking.

AI/HPC contracts offer something Bitcoin mining really doesn’t: potentially predictable long-term revenue.

I went through several major miners that are investing in or shifting infrastructure toward AI/HPC. Based on the companies I looked at, roughly 128.5 EH/s of Bitcoin mining capacity could potentially be associated with miners making these moves, or around 14% of a ~918 EH/s network.

Obviously that does not mean 14% of Bitcoin’s hashrate is suddenly shutting off. Most of these companies aren't abandoning Bitcoin completely, and some are specifically talking about running both businesses.

But it raises an interesting question:

If AI continues paying substantially more for the same access to cheap power and data-center infrastructure, how much incentive will these companies have to keep expanding Bitcoin mining?

And there could be another side to this.

If enough large industrial miners stop adding ASIC capacity—or actually reduce it—could Bitcoin mining eventually become somewhat more viable again for smaller and home miners?

Or does the constant introduction of newer, more efficient ASICs make that unlikely regardless?

I made a video breaking down the numbers and the companies involved for anyone interested:

https://youtu.be/hM4Hd1ZsQlk

Curious what miners here think. If you controlled a 100+ MW site today and had the choice between expanding Bitcoin mining or signing a long-term AI/HPC compute contract, which direction would you go?

1. Is it better to use Jade Plus as a temporary signer (so it will become like seed signer), or is it better to setup a pin and keep the seeds stored in the device?

2. Regarding the entropy creation, I came to know recently (after CC hacks) that Jade Plus uses multiple sources to create the entropy: Physical Sensors, Camera Input, Hardware RNG, External Inputs (user interaction, buttons speed...) etc.. So my question is, if Jade Plus uses all of these sources to create entropy, doesn't that make it more secure than rolling the dice? Is it only the (trust) that is the case or there is hidden math behind it? please explain it as I really want to understand the math.

3. Using Jade Plus to generate seeds is safe? Or should I be worried?

4. If I want to use the dice, does it matter if I use any ordinary dice or it has to be the casino grade dice?

Thank you

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Is it possible to turn an old phone into a seedsigner? Most people turn phones into hardware wallets but I'm not confortable storing my private keys in the phone's SSD, even if doubly encrypted (phone encryption + wallet encryption).

One big advantage is the stealth factor. You walk through customs and you put a huge target on your head if they recognize your Seedsigner. Phones on the other hand are everyday carry for 99.9% of people.

Is there a way to use the phone solely as a signing device where the private keys are held only temporarily (either RAM or wiped clean after use)?

Of course all conectivity other than the camera would be disabled.

Question. I got into Bitcoin roughly a decade ago. I haven’t sold since other than a few sats here and there to reward myself for holding and buy something in USD. For those who say they’re “never selling” do you believe that in your lifetime it will be practical and also widely accepted as currency? Or that it will reach a price like $10M USD where you’ll have no choice but to sell?

Do the reddit bitcoiner peeps need to hardfork to a new account or can we dicuss both here?

I’m experimenting the dice roll feature on a Keystone Pro 3 to generate a seedphrase, and cross-checking the seedphrase generated using Ion Coleman’s BIP39 tool to check if they match. I rolled 100 dice rolls to produce the seedphrase, and found out that the total bits is 167 due to bias, as opposed to the max 256 bits.

My question is: while I understand 167 bits indicate a safe seedphrase, do you recommend +150 rolls, or even the maximum number of rolls of 256 that the Keystone accepts, for increased entropy?

I’ve been around BTC for a while, but lately I’ve found myself thinking more seriously about where we actually go from here.

Bitcoin has gone from something most people laughed at, to an asset held by institutions, companies and governments. Every cycle seems to bring a new group of people into the space, but at the same time the original idea of actually using Bitcoin seems to get discussed less and less.

So I’m curious how people here genuinely see the next few years playing out.

Are you still aggressively accumulating? Taking profits and diversifying? Holding everything regardless of price? Or have you reached the point where BTC has already done what you needed it to do financially?

I’m especially interested in hearing from people who have been through multiple cycles. Has your strategy changed as the market has matured?

No price predictions needed, just interested in how everyone is positioning themselves and why.

Would be good to get a proper discussion going

i had a wallet on electrum and i lost the password, but i still have the generation seed so i just used that to make a new wallet, i also ordered 100$ of bitcoin before i forgot the password and lost the account, the transaction has not gone through yet, will it go to the new walet because i used the same generation seed?

Just think about it. Nothing makes any sense. Wars all over the place. Basic necessities cost your whole paycheck. And don’t get me started on politics. Men and women at odds with one another. No one is having kids. The family unit, what the hell is even is that?

Corporate greed at dizzying heights.

Governments up to their ears in debt.

Zoomers and Alphas YOLOing their money into prediction markets. You know we are cooked when the youngest of us have lost hope.

The future looks DARK

If only there was a way out of all this……

I was looking for mixers and saw Wasabi wallet to be the most consistent recommendation. But is there any easy to follow guide on how exactly to use it in a safe manner as a relative noob? I want to understand the basic usage pattern first, and then dig deeper into some of the underlying concepts if necessary.

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My wife’s family in India wants to send us $20000 equivalent as a gift for our marriage . Is buying BTC and sending to my wallet the best method available, or is there any hidden fees and taxes that would make other methods better at the moment ? I am from
America

I keep seeing more and more posts saying that the Bitcoin bull run has already started.

Maybe they’re right. But after living through three Bitcoin bear markets, something in the back of my mind keeps telling me that the downside might not be over yet.

I already have my Bitcoin bags. I’m not sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect entry. But even so, I have this feeling that we might still have to experience a little more pain before the real bottom is in.

One thing that keeps bothering me is the Hash Ribbons indicator.

Historically, Hash Ribbons has flashed around the major cycle bottoms in Bitcoin. This time, it hasn’t.

Maybe this cycle is different. Maybe the indicator simply won’t work the same way this time.

But after watching Bitcoin for years, I’ve learned one thing:
When everyone starts feeling confident that the bull run is here, that’s usually when I start getting nervous.

I could be completely wrong. And honestly, I hope I am.

But I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin still has one more nasty shakeout before the next major leg up.

What do you guys think? Are we already in the bull run, or is there still more downside ahead?

Since the etf resets every day I'm just supposed to hold and wait right need advice

WARNING: NC Wallet is holding my BTC for 100+ hours. No TxID generated even after paying priority fee (Ticket: NW-150331) I am putting out a serious warning for anyone considering using NC Wallet.

My funds are being held in what appears to be a deliberate internal lock. I initiated a Bitcoin withdrawal of 0.00272744 BTC exactly 100 hours ago. To ensure a fast transaction, I explicitly turned off their "No commission" option and paid the priority network fee myself. Despite this, the transaction has been stuck in "Pending" status for over 4 days. No TxID (transaction hash) has been generated. This is 100% proof that NC Wallet is holding the funds internally and has not even broadcasted the transaction to the Bitcoin blockchain.

Support (Ticket: NW-150331) sent a generic automated reply blaming "blockchain congestion," which is a flat-out lie since there is no TxID to track. Since I pointed this out with technical facts, they have gone completely silent and ignored all my email. Stay away from this platform.

If anyone has tips on how to force them to release an internal hold, please let me know.

EDIT:

After a quite battle, NC Wallet finally reversed my Bitcoin withdrawal, but then they freezed my funds under fake KYC/AML, and NC Wallet is holding my Bitcoin hostage. They locked my account with 'Withdrawal restricted due to account status'.

I have submitted a brand new valid passport, utility bill, and full source of funds. Eva from support keeps sending generic excuses and ignores Ticket #150331. Completely untrustworthy service, avoid!"

I've just ordered a trezor 7 because I want to set up my seed and also passphrase. It's a Bitcoin-only trezor 7. I would like some advice on whether or not I should do a dice roll or let the trezor generate my seed.

I'm aware of the recent cold card situation, so I'd just like to get some recommendations. I have a few dice, but I'm unsure of the procedure on how to go about rolling dice because I'd like to do it correctly so that I don't introduce any human errors to the procedure. I guess, in a nutshell, I'd like to know: will I just let the trezor 7 generate the 12-word seed phrase, or should I do the 100 dice rolls and generate my own entropy that way? Thanks.

Picture this: you suddenly wake up and it's 2013 again. After thanking God for it all just being a terrible nightmare, you go online to check if Bitcoin really exists. And it does.

You can buy Bitcoin for 15USD. Yes, that's 15. Would you "wait til it hits 9$ again" or would you just fkin buy it right away?

This is what people from 2040 will think when they see posts from 2026 asking whether it'll go to 65k again or up to 84k. They'll think "how stupid were they? Why didn't they just fking buy the damn thing and hodl it long enough?"

Well that's where we are now buddy boys. It's your call.

Trying this again: If you’re a digital nomad or expat, what is your hw wallet setup and what is your experience going through TSA with your hw wallet? Will your setup change now that CBP updated their policies for electronics? https://www.cbp.gov/travel/cbp-search-authority/border-search-electronic-devices

Please do not respond to this question if you don’t understand what a digital nomad is. Telling me I don’t need to travel with my hw wallet is not a useful comment and ignores the fact that I said DIGITAL NOMAD.

We just saw the new FED chair Kevin Warsh give a speech at the Jackson Hole. Everyone panics? Why?

While the Federal Reserve Chair does not have authority legally to shut down Bitcoin, their decisions on interest rate hikes and money printing heavily drive where crypto prices go. True, these are wild times for Bitcoin.

We have a hardfork supposedly happening September 1st and traders are being crammed into another bulltrap. Of course all this is personal perception.

While we wait and sit this bear market out, one question now arises.

Will the new FED chair make or break Bitcoin?

1- Never sell

2- Invest 30% of all my money at 40% below the peak

3- Invest 60% of all my money at 50% below the peak.

4- Invest 100% of all my money at 60% below the peak.

5- Never buy BTC outside of these 3 scenarios.

After cold card and trezor issues what’s the next best option to store bitcoin. I’m currently using electrum

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If it is not going to zero, then it is going to a million

Its truth. Real life. People on X on else, yapping about their narratives so you follow them to profits them. Nothing new on real life. Just people keep selling stuff.

Im the moron who buys bitcoin at 80K. Been DCA for over 1 year now. Gonna keep
Going for 10+ years.

Your federal taxes will be drastically lower than a year you were employed in, maybe even close to 0% if you stay under the lowest tax bracket. You will likely still owe your state taxes, so don't expect a free ride.

That means if, for example, you get laid off in September 2026, wait until January 2027 to sell if you really need the funds. If you can find work or have a large enough e-fund, then no need to sell.

Quick comparison — selling $50k in BTC (single filer, CA):

Scenario Total tax owed
$0 income ~$1,660
$20/hr job (~$41,600/yr) ~$11,850

Even a modest part-time income pushes your gains way up.

Personally, I think people should only invest what they don't plan to sell for 10+ years, but for the maxis in here whose entire net worth is in BTC, this is a good tip if you are expecting to be laid off soon.

Zoom out, look at the 6 months chart, keep focused on the long term vision

There’s no stopping this train. There is nothing the US or any government can do to reign in the massive levels of debt to GDP the world enjoys today.

They will claim that they intend to “grow out of it”; that is just code for currency debasement. Bitcoin is ready for that and has been since 2009.

They can’t aggressively raise interest rates.

They can’t wish away the debt.

They can’t cut spending.

They can buy back their own debt to lower bond yields using money they print out of thin air which is another level of insanity altogether.

They are mathematically trapped.

All you have to do is bitcoin and chill.

Started in March 2026 investing in Bitcoin and after 378 Transaction (Buying BTC), Today finally reached 1.003 BTC

do u think it is muted similar to the most recent bull and we are past the bottom or do u think history is gonna repeat itself?

In hindsight, r/buttcoin dancing on the graves of Coldcard victims was an obvious bottom signal. I remember in 2022, they celebrated the demise of FTX users while pretty obvious opportunities, like buying under the 200-week SMA, came and went. When I think about BTC maxis speed-running decades of inflation in six months, I wonder if you guys aren’t just opposite sides of the same retarded coin

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A couple of weeks ago, I sold all my BTC to buy SpaceX.

Today, just a few hours ago...at 81k, I did the exact opposite, sold my SpaceX position and bought back all the BTC I had sold.

So naturally, BTC is going to crash like crazy, expect 50k... soon! :(

The news is going nuts about the debasement trade, institutional accumulation and macro headwinds. We might have a short drawdown before it picks up again but it feels like Bitcoin is about to melt faces. Sorry to stress anyone out with this post but this might be it for the majority of us trying to reach that sweet whole coin status. Just remember to be humble and focus on the stacking. It's all about the long-term strategy.

I feel every year there’s at least one major disaster that later gets swept under the rug. There was so much news and panic regarding this, but a week later absolutely nothing.

Now that crypto is creeping back up, reminds me of the time when folks were locked at the all time lows with the celsius fiasco.

imo its starting to look like the people waiting for lower prices are in a bit of trouble if this builds support @ 80k. thoughts and opinions? (pls no sheeple talking about the "scheduled bottom")

The lightning network is a second-layer solution on top of the Bitcoin blockchain that enables quick, cheap and scalable Bitcoin payments.

Here is the place to discuss and learn more about lightning!

Ask your questions about lightning

Provide reviews, feedback, comparisons of LN apps, services, websites etc

Learn about new LN features, development, apps

Link to good quality resources (articles, wikis etc)

Resources:

• Here is an awesome list of resources: https://bitcoinfo.org/lightning.html

• Want to test out your lightning fire power? tip the Bitcoin devs! https://bitcoindevlist.com/

• Previous threads: Search

• Lnbook getting closer towards being finished and can already be seen at: https://github.com/lnbook/lnbook

• Lightning Dedicated YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/renepickhardt

• Also there is the playlist by chaincode labs: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpLH33TRghT17_U3as2P3vHfAGL8pSOOY

• Lightning stores: https://www.lightningnetworkstores.com/

• Learn more and talk about lightning right here in r/Bitcoin, r/bitcoinbeginners and r/thelightningnetwork

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My whole financial life runs on spreadsheets. Every expense categorized, every savings target logged, running totals on everything. So when I started buying Bitcoin on a schedule I naturally built out a full cost basis tracker. Date of purchase, amount, price at the time, current value, unrealized gain or loss, the works.

What I didn't expect is that knowing my exact cost basis makes dips feel more personal somehow. Before the spreadsheet, a price drop was just a number on an app. Now it's a specific red cell in a column with my name on it. That feels different in a way that's hard to explain, and I'm not sure it's helping.

The people I read about who hold through everything without flinching seem to either have a very long time horizon baked in, or they genuinely stopped treating shortterm price movement as information worth reacting to. I can't tell if the cost basis tracking is giving me useful data or just more surface area to stress about.

There's probably a version of this where you track everything obsessively and stay calm anyway because the conviction is strong enough. I haven't found that version yet.

Did tracking your numbers closely make holding easier or harder over time? Or did you eventually just stop updating the sheet?

I was active on #bitcoin-otc in early 2009. An inner voice told me 1500 BTC would be enough to live my dreams. Instead I asked for 2500 BTC for $25 and got kicked out of the channel. At the time that amount was only worth a couple dollars, so I felt rejected by the community.
Around the same period I also mined 50 BTC. I wrote the private key on paper, then tore it up because the software wasn’t working right and I figured it “wasn’t meant to be.” I never tried to recover it.
I’ve spent years stuck in the loop of “I could have been rich.” I can’t fully accept that I missed what felt like a once-in-a-lifetime chance. Even the 50 BTC would have changed everything for me.
I’m trying to make peace with it and stay grateful for what I have now. Thanks for listening.

I don’t mean just hold it long term, I mean like I’m going to die with it. I look at my stack and I think, I’m selling that bit on X date or X price or, I’m selling that to buy X.

But then I look at a bit of my stack and I’m thinking I’m not selling that ever.

Anyone else the same?

I’m curious because if this is the norm, bitcoin is a lot scarcer than we might think it is.

如何磨练自己的投资眼光，对流动性、叙事、共识等足够敏锐，并且做出合理的判断

Coldcard was a shock for the whole community, now everybody thinks about how to improve their security setup. But lot of people doesn’t hold a retirement worthy stack of btc, so sooner or later the question comes around: when and what to do?

I would like to know, what would you recommend a beginner (small amount), intermediate and so on?
When does a reel good (expensive) steel wallet makes sense, when do you really need a passphrase or even a multisig? I mean it’s always an individual decision, but in my opinion in some cases you don’t need the max of the max when the security costs are higher than your stack.
Sure, if you hold 10btc the security should be at its max, but let’s be calm and touch some grass when does someone really need a multi vendor setup?

Happy to hear your borders!

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Been following the Coldcard fallout closely and this is the most interesting response to it so far.

After Coldcard losses climbed past 100 million, developer Calle and AnchorWatch CEO Rob Hamilton organized the Bitcoin Red Team, 16 volunteers globally, pointing frontier AI models at as much of Bitcoin's open source codebase as possible. OpenSats funded the compute, roughly 10k a day, AI developer Moonshot provided model access including Kimi K3.

Results from a 27.5 hour sprint starting August 4: 4,962 total findings across 390 projects. 85 critical, 635 high severity. Project owners confirmed most of the critical reports, and researchers rebuilt working proofs of concept before alerting maintainers, not just AI flagging something suspicious.

The bottleneck isn't discovery anymore according to the team, it's verification and routing. Only about 21 percent of findings had been independently reproduced by the 30 hour mark, fewer than 5 percent of projects had gotten formal disclosure.

Here's the part that makes it concrete instead of abstract. During this same window, attackers exploited a critical BTCPay Server vulnerability, draining Lightning nodes running behind it by stealing macaroon credential files. Foundation, the hardware wallet company, had its own BTCPay Lightning node drained overnight. This specific vulnerability had already been reported to BTCPay by Red Team members. It got found, reported, and exploited anyway before the fix was fully deployed everywhere.

Full writeup on the whole sequence:

https://davidebtc186.substack.com/p/16-volunteers-27-hours-40000-in-ai

I was thinking of starting to mine btc and started doing some research. I figured out it's not really profitable and probably a cost sink. So I was thinking I could have it as a side hobby that could possibly make me money if im lucky. Im just wondering if it's any fun.

Hello there Dear Bitcoiners,

i plan to buy btc soon, and i wonder what is the ultimative cheapest way to buy btc from eur to btc?

I mean top up from eur bank transfer or anywow, plus lowest fee and comissionspread while buying, i want to max out every euro to satoshi, what the best way?

I used to buy on Binance but since its banned i need now new way, any ideas?

I think kraken looks pretty expensive by fees, there must be better

EDIT UPDATE AFTER 16hours and +100 COMMENTS

thx for all the answers to everybody!!

i have made a list of all recommendations;

-RevolutX -
-OKX
-Krakenpro
-Bitvavo
-Strike

I will try each exchange with about 200€ to buy in btc and see how it turns out, and then compare fees/spreads overall and all other costs like withdrawal, will make a new post then.

I don't know what this post is supposed to be about. I'm pretty new to crypto and investing and I was just thinking about Bitcoin. I don't think crypto really appeals to me. But I'm totally sold on Bitcoin with the decentralized nature of it and the scarcity. That's all. Just a Bitcoin appreciation post. Go Bitcoin!

When I was a kid, I wanted to buy in-game currency for a game I played, so I downloaded Bitcoin-Qt at an internet café, I tried mining but didn't understand a thing, so I turned to those survey/offer sites that paid 0.25 BTC per completed survey. I installed a few programs and Firefox extensions, and after a few hours managed to accumulate 1.75 BTC, but I got bored because the amount was nowhere near what I needed, and I ended up forgetting all about it. A few years later, BTC started skyrocketing in value, which devastated me. I decided never to chase after BTC again, yet that childhood memory kept popping into my mind every now and then. That’s why I decided to give it another shot. I’m not overly confident, knowing I missed my big chance, but I know that I won't be able to rest until I give it a shot.

Just a silly vent, but I really hope I'm not the only person who's been through this lmao

I have never owned Bitcoin until NOW and here is why I’m now buying and holding. Last week when Bessent announced he is doubling Treasury buybacks of US government long bonds it means this:

Those bonds are ILLIQUID meaning the cash is largely locked up in them. Who holds them? Many people including hedge funds. Bessent just told these hedge funds that he will now BUY those previously ILLIQUID bonds creating new liquidity for hedge funds. This begins on Sept 9 but hedge funds are already front running this and buying Bitcoin. This is the mechanics of it in a nutshell. Many don’t currently understand this. They think that Bitcoins move is mostly from a short squeeze but they are not understanding the VERY IMPORTANT fundamental catalyst that has acted as the match to light the Bitcoin flame! This flame is not going away but will only grow as more and more government intervention is needed.

I’m buying Bitcoin because this is JUST THE BEGINNING of the cycle. Sell when retail fomos at the late stages. We are many, many years away from that happening.

This might be a "well duh" question, but do you guys think the whales and institutes pay attention to what retail investors are saying / believing and then manipulate the markets around that?

Everyone here was talking about October lows and then bam were jumping up 10k+ in August, not saying it'll stay here but do you think the big players share a group chat like "lol dumb retails think its October lows let's make it run up in August to fuck with them" ????

I know we had the fed talking about buying back debt or whatever so maybe coincidence?

What do you think? Its hard to imagine the early investors with hundreds or thousands of coins don't all chat about what move to make next

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If I don’t have $100K of liquid cash and don’t want to touch my savings account. Would you buy $100K of Bitcoin (IBIT) in your 401K? I ain’t touching my 401K for years (20+) anyways. I am afraid that I won’t be able to afford 1 Bitcoin in the next 10 years due its price probably being $300K+. But I have always heard, “not your keys not your Bitcoin”…

Thoughts?

I’d like to start buying bitcoin, obviously when it was 60k it would’ve been even better. It seems some people say it will drop one more time? I don’t have a ton of money to keep putting into it so I’d like to pick an optimal time, is the general consensus that it’ll drop one more time before going up? Also I don’t really know how fast it drops/rises. Thanks in advance

If you don’t believe me, just see it yourself. ~ Sun tzu x satoshi collabs - the art of Bitcoining

Hit the sell order and I’m out. Bought a handful around 16.5 and rode it up. I still think it’s a good bet but I’m retired and the volatility just got too crazy. I used to think marketplace access was a great thing (and probably still is) but it made it too easy for the buy/sell guys and it just no longer fits the portfolio. I kept one just for good measure. Good luck longs. You are gonna win.

I built NYENYC (Not Your Entropy Not Your Coins), a small open-source, completely offline device that generates a standard 24-word BIP-39 mnemonic from entropy supplied entirely by the user.

The device itself generates no entropy. It is basically a glorified BIP-39 calculator: you give it coin flips or dice rolls, it gives you the corresponding 24 words.

It just does all the heavy lifting for you: it collects the bits from coin flips or dice rolls, computes the checksum and converts the 11*24=264 bits into 24 BIP-39 words.

Why?

Because when a hardware wallet generates a seed internally, at some point you have to trust its entropy generation chain.

You can have a perfectly good hardware TRNG, but you still have to trust that the firmware actually uses it correctly when generating the seed. A bug anywhere in that path can make the hardware RNG irrelevant. The recent Coldcard entropy issue is a good example of this failure mode.

With NYENYC the entropy source is outside the device and visible to you.

The part I particularly like is the Von Neumann coin mode, in which you do not need a perfectly fair coin to get unbiased output bits.

Under the normal assumption that flips are independent and the coin bias stays the same, the output is mathematically unbiased even if the physical coin itself is biased.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_coin

So you can take a completely ordinary coin and keep flipping until the device has collected 256 unbiased bits.

There are also plain coin-flip and dice modes.

The hardware is intentionally stupid: PIC18F47K42, 2×16 LCD and two buttons. No USB, no networking and no persistent storage. The generated seed only exists in RAM and disappears when the device is powered off.

Everything is open source, hardware and firmware:

https://github.com/gianlucag/NYENYC

Any feedback is very welcome! And please don't judge my soldering skills :-)

I'm just wondering for everyone who's now on their way to the moon, what's exactly your message to our beloved people stuck on earth?

Try to keep it friendly guys as they're already in pain, no need to rub it even more. I would honestly ask the 40k crowd a question instead. At what price or scenario are you going to accept this is indeed a bull market now? By that time, will it be too late for your personal entry?

Bessent $1 trillion Treasury General Account bond buybacks

...yet some people are schocked why shorts are being obliterated, let the printer print, guys... this is just pure fuel to bitcoin

You have seen it, on every post in every crypto thread, there is me, shaming you for not DCAing, irregardless of what your post is about. You know the kinds of comments -

- "Shut up and DCA"
- "You're an egit for not DCAing"
- "I'm high and mighty for not doing anything as reckless and you are and I look down on your penniless ignorance with conceited superiority"

Sure it makes sense that if I'm DCAing I don't need to be online every single day of my short life commenting on literally every single post but listen, I'm not shaming you because I'm just as scared as the traders, oh no, I'm actually WAY more scared and it makes me feel more in control of my life when I can make other people feel inferior.

Thank you for your attention and never forget, DCA!

For reference: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/K6KvreB6cM

https://youtu.be/nJeddv1QbeQ

Looked at Bitcoin-related tweets from the last six hours and something stood out: only 20% showed FOMO-type language and 15% showed FUD, meaning the clear majority of chatter isn't emotionally charged in either direction. That's a pretty tight gap compared to the extreme swings you usually see when BTC is trending hard.

The undertone across the general commentary is cautious optimism, mostly tied to continued institutional and ETF interest, but it's balanced out by people flagging regulatory uncertainty and macro signals as reasons for hesitation. Basically nobody in this window seems fully convinced of an imminent breakout or a sharp pullback, which is a bit unusual given how polarized crypto Twitter/X sentiment often gets.

A tight FOMO/FUD spread like this can sometimes mean the market's in a wait-and-see mode ahead of some catalyst, whether that's a macro print, a regulatory decision, or an ETF flow update. It doesn't tell you direction, just that conviction is currently low on both sides.

What do you think is causing the hesitation right now, is it more about macro data or the regulatory overhang?

What's everyone's opinions? I know bitcoin has been pumping had mixed opinions saying this is what we've been waiting for, some are saying it's a bull trap for an all time low. What do we think

Ask (and answer!) away! Here are the general rules:

• If you'd like to learn something, ask.
• If you'd like to share knowledge, answer.
• Any question about Bitcoin is fair game.

And don't forget to check out /r/BitcoinBeginners

You can sort by new to see the latest questions that may not be answered yet.

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It is funny to see how 3 daily and I should say significant green candles changed Bitcoin sentiment.
So called analysts that analyze Bitcoin every day up until 17 August were calculating the bottom using Fibonacci and other measurements and now they're saying they are bullish.
For example Jason Pizzino.
10 days ago his video title was Bitcoin: Countdown to the brutal bottom.
7 days ago his video title was Bitcoin: It's grinding to the bitter end.
And now he is saying we bottomed in and now he started to see bullish signals.

I will be cooking if btc continue this bullish move. What I was expecting was just a retracement but at the end I’m seeing what is more than my expectations. As a professional Technical analyst, what is your your take on bitcoin?

Good evening everyone, i have purchased a cold wallet to hold my coins and i went with Dcent. When owning these cold wallets and running their firmwares on your computers, do you have any extra type of security running on your computer just to be safe while doing transactions? My fear is getting hacked and i know i have to write down my seedphrase and lock it away in a safe place. I'd rather add another layer of security, if there's any.

Hi,
A few days ago, I lost the descriptor for my multisig. Is there any way to recover my sats using only the seed phrases?

By the way, one of the seeds has a passphrase ☠️

Thanks.

I would like to buy a Steel Backup solution and will use a Storage dropoff address. Shall I buy form a privat person via 2nd hand-shops Like eBay or buy direct form the company online shop. In Both Cases I have to share my Full Name but can also hide my privat Adress via a package public storage dropoff point. After the dataleaks especially from Trezors third party shipmonk and in case of crypto shops in general the big question is:
is it better to share my name with a unkown random privat person from eBay and buy his left over steel backup or buy one from the company online shop?

X is filled with gambler, delete x, they made money out of you. Ts so as.

I’ve been buying Bitcoin & coding with blockchain since 2012. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I have several panes of glass.

We are NOT in a stage of stable horizontal movement right now, and there will be several more BIG swings either up or down… so get ready!

I still expect Bitcoin to pass $200k in the next 1-2 years, so act accordingly.

Cheers Fam ????

Edit: Lots of unexpected hostility here. It’s difficult to explain a lifetime of knowledge & education in a general statement that appeals to & is understandable by the masses. You’re welcome to start a conversation, or ask me some questions. I’ve created entire blockchains, and I’m almost done with my 3rd. I have a degree in Engineering, and I’m well educated about Economics. Bitcoin is a finite asset, that out-techs several other forms of payment. I’ve made custom blockchains to fit different usage cases for several Fortune-500 companies.

There are some good books out there, and I recommend “The Truth Machine. The Blockchain And The Future Of Everything” if you want a good place to start.

What's going on?????¿¿¿

Is it possible for retail to transfer BTC in cold storage into IBIT without a taxable event? Grok leads me to believe an accredited investor can essentially develop a private relationship with the firms approved for in-kind transfers and do this for a small fee. Has anyone done it?

Some easy advice for some of you on the fence, or newbies.

1. You never want to sell Bitcoin when it is going down. It's too low and you can't optimize gains.

2. You never want to sell Bitcoin when it is going up. Why would you do that? It will be worth more later!

Summary: don't sell. Never a good time.

I really believe gifting Bitcoin to friends and family is one of the most beautiful ways to introduce them to this space.

When I wanted to gift some sats to my niece recently, I thought about the physical aspect of gifting. I wanted something they could hold in their hands, but generated with strict security.

There are already great ways to do this, but I wanted to add another option to the table. I've been working on an open-source, air-gapped minimal Linux system (SignerOS) for offline wallet creation. I designed a specific "Gift Wallet" page for it:

https://signeros.github.io/signeros/gift_wallet.html

The concept is simple: Boot into an offline environment, generate the seed safely, write it down on the template, and fund the public address. It gives them a physical paper wallet that was born completely offline.

I just wanted to share this with the community for anyone who likes creating physical paper wallets for their loved ones. Would love to hear what you think!

ONE MONTH ago $7,000 was sent from Coinbase to Crypto.com. A "satoshi test" was required to prove ownership of the bitcoin address it came from (which neither Crypto nor EU regulation requires for exchanges). By one stupid click the "non-custodial" option was accidentally picked instead of "exchange". This has resulted in the impossibility of performing the "satishi test" and releasing the $7,000. We have been trying to get Crypto support to help for exactly ONE MONTH and they are utterly useless. They cannot reset the option to choose "exchange" again instead of "non-custodial" nor will they just manually approve it (their simple chain analysis can see it came from Coinbase).

Support has been completely utterly useless and for the first week would only respond with irrelevant copy and paste generic replies. It has been escalated countless times and they never fix or address the problem. We are now having to contact Crypto.com's regulatory bodies in various countries and god knows how long that will take. All they have to do is allow us to choose the correct transfer option again the coin came from (from Coinbase) which seems to be technically impossible for them. Or they could just manually approve the transfer by verifying with their simple chain analysis that the transfer came from Coinbase. They refuse to do either.

So I work in the AI agent space. Recently, I did an experiment with hooking up an AI agent to Bitcoin, the Bitcoin stack, Bitcoin Lightning, and Taproot Assets, and had agents basically connect with one another. And guys, it gets weird.

Like they make escrow contracts, it was so bizarre. They would construct the transactions, and then the human agent pilots(me) would sign them. i didnt give them their pwn private key, just the master pub key, to make transactions, It's a really interesting combo, and I think this is actually what's going to get very crazy.

Because, you know, for Bitcoin, what it can do, if you need the advanced features of writing your own smart contract in Bitcoin, like M of N, coordinating that with people to get it signed, it's really quite time-consuming and complicated. But if everybody has agents operating on this and constructing and coordinating the signatures of an M of N and time lock and hash lock, and all the cool stuff that you can really do with Bitcoin smart contracts, guys, the future is going to be so absolutely insane with this stuff. Agents construct and organize the coordination of the contract, and then humans review and sign.

And especially with Taproot assets, it is going to be crazy. The agents get to make their own currency. So I'm just wondering if anybody else in the community is experimenting with this. I'm seeing some pretty weird stuff of what the agents do.

What was really interesting is they made themselves a reputation token. Basically, they minted a receipt of their simulated goods and services that they were selling each other. Very, very interesting.

So I think we're going to get some really wild synergy when AI agents start mixing up with Bitcoin to get some really wild things.

And that got me thinking, AI Agents will be able to buy their own compute, energy, hire people, raise capital, pay dividends, maybe even make their own currencies on top of bitcoin and compete with central banks. I suspect people have already let agents loose with some crypto.

Guys, I think is a couple years away from getting really fucking crazy.

Hi I started as a total noob with an app (ocean bitcoin). Now when I try to redeem it to my Speed wallet it just tells me the address has to start with inbc. How do I resolve this?

I see many, many many miserable people who are showing disgust by the rise of BTC again. There are bloomberg reports and other big finance companies who say BTC will reach half a mill by the end of 2030. You would think majority of BTC community will stand up and celebrate, but sadly I see many partypoopers who display disgust and miserable behavior.

Don't tell me y'all started shorting at 60k which showed strong resistance level, close to 1 year cycle? What you really thought big money was gonna allow you to buy at 40k? If you all desire 40k then it would be impossible to buy at that price, basic supply and demand.

The fact that average Joe is not positioning himself during this rally makes me believe it's the real deal.

I'm a bitcoin relative noob. I've been aware of bitcoin since about 2013 and always thought it was a high risk ponzi scheme for stoners and tin foil hatters, for the simple reason that the only person I ever knew who was into bitcoin and openly talked about it, was exactly that. It wasn't till I got a bit older, and a bit wiser that I took the time to try and understand it.

I've run a successful business for a long time, but never made any life changing money or investments. Frankly, I'm pretty jaded about 'the system', government, inflation and taxation after working myself to the bone for a few decades with very little to show for it. To be fair, I'm fully aware that my life is likely better than most on this earth, so I don't want this to be about 'poor me'. I simply include this for context.

For me, self custodied bitcoin is a means of throwing a middle finger at the man, taking a step toward some self sovereignty, and making a financial decision that future me will thank me for. I lean more toward hodler than trader for what it's worth. The level of traditional financial influence and centralisation on bitcoin currently and in the future concerns me.

I find myself in social situations wanting to talk about bitcoin. Constantly. And it dawned on me recently that I'll never convince anyone without coming across as that tin foil hatter I knew from years ago. Like me on my own bitcoin journey, I realise people need to do their own research and come to their own conclusions. If it's right for them, they'll find it.

But it makes me wonder... what should I 'do my own research' on next? (You don't know what you don't know right!?)

So I wanted to ask you all, the bitcoin brains trust, to plant a seed:

<? > - Do your own research...

Post Edit: It doesn't have to be bitcoin related...I don't need anymore convincing about bitcoin.

I’m the developer of Aura, a Bitcoin-only self-custody wallet. This isn’t a launch post, and I’m intentionally leaving out the download link.

The recent discussions here about wallet entropy and reproducible firmware made me rethink how developers use “open source” as if it closes the trust problem. It doesn’t.

Public code alone doesn’t prove that:

- the binary in an app store came from the published commit;

- key generation is actually using the entropy source the code appears to use;

- recovery works outside the original app;

- an Electrum server or notification service cannot learn more than users expect;

- or an audit still applies to the version people are installing today.

My current idea of a minimum “evidence package” for a new wallet is:

1. Signed release tags and a documented, independently verifiable build path.

2. A plain-English threat model: what stays on-device, what leaves, and what a compromised device or server can do.

3. Published key-generation and storage details, derivation paths, and recovery test vectors.

4. An independent audit tied to a specific commit, including its scope and unresolved findings.

5. Own-node support and an honest privacy explanation for public Electrum servers.

6. A public security contact and a changelog that clearly identifies security-relevant changes.

For transparency: Aura currently publishes its source and release tags, documents its BIP39 and BIP44/49/84 recovery paths, signs transactions locally, and supports a custom Electrum server.

It does not currently have a published independent audit or a public method for reproducing the App Store binary. Those are real gaps, and I don’t want to hide them behind the words “open source.”

If you could require only two items before trying a new wallet with a small amount, which two would they be?

And what single missing item would make you walk away immediately?

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I Just checked Right now, and you can do it as well in the coin glass website the value of the Long, and it was indicated to 4 Billion dollars, which means brokers will lose this money if betcoin goes up....and before one week the value of Short was just 3 billion dollars, and that was the main reason for that big movement from 64k to 79 k, and all that position have been closed......I hope the same thing will not happen again if Bitcoin goes down to 60K ....

4 Billion dollars is really a big amount of money will brokers lose it if Bitcoin goes up ? And if Bitcoin goes down, it will not stop at 60k this time, I think it will stop at 52k .

What do you think?

I feel the answer is just "yes."
But like for those who stopped tracking, how did you do it?

Im so obsessed with checking price, i feel im wasting my energy and time.

There's a radio in your pocket that hears Bluetooth packets all day: trackers, sensors, beacons. Your phone typically discards every one of them. I built EE Gateway to forward them instead.

Open BLE networks need ground coverage the way AirTags need iPhones. Think like a mini cell tower in your pocket - where each phone provides about 100 meters coverage. Your phone can now earn Sats for relaying BLE packets.

How it works

• Your phone (or Umbrel node) scans for BLE broadcasts. Receive-only, it never transmits.
• 1 sat per unique device identifier (they're ephemeral IDs) per UTC day, paid to the first gateway to forward it.
• Settlement runs daily over Lightning to your address.

The honest caveats, before anyone asks...

• Earnings track BLE density near you. Logistics corridors are busy, residential streets mostly aren't, and you won't know until you field test. Nobody's getting rich on this today.
• Pending sats are held custodially until your total clears 1,000 sats, then they land at your Lightning address.
• Every packet carries the GPS fix age and accuracy it was heard with. A phone without a fresh fix drops the packet, so the coverage data stays honest.

The Umbrel/Raspberry Pi version is open source (GPL-3.0).

The ask: run it for a few days and tell me what you think.

Download Links

Umbrel App: https://apps.umbrel.com/app/ee-gateway

App Store: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ee-gateway/id6792848842
Play Store: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.encryptedenergy.gateway.android&hl=en_US

Site: https://encryptedenergy.com

Every Bitcoin cycle has done the exact same three things, in the exact same order, since 2017

New all time high. Brutal drawdown, 80%+ historically. Then a slow reclaim that eventually breaks the old high completely. 2017 did it. 2021 did it. 2025 just did it again, peaking above $126k before correcting hard into this year.

What gets lost in the panic every single cycle is that the drawdown itself has gotten shallower each time, not deeper. 2013 lost roughly 85%. 2017 lost roughly 84%. 2021 lost roughly 77%. Same pattern, same fear, less damage each round as the asset matures and more capital treats corrections as entries instead of exits.

The part almost nobody believes while its happening, every previous "this time it's different, it's finally over" moment preceded a full recovery and a new high. Every one. Doesnt mean this cycle guarantees the same outcome, nothing's guaranteed, but four cycles of identical rhythm is a pattern worth knowing exists before assuming this one breaks it.

History doesnt repeat perfectly. It just rhymes enough to be worth paying attention to.

I agree that part of Bitcoin’s recent rise is likely tied to panic in the bond market, but I also suspect it’s connected to recent capital outflows from Russia.

There’s been a short bank run driven by fears of government asset seizures. While some money is going into brokerage accounts, those assets can still be frozen or seized. I suspect some Russians are moving money into Bitcoin as a more reliable and easily transferable store of value. This is bound to have a positive long-term impact, I’ll check my buddy’s Chainalysis account to see if I can confirm this ????

Curious if people are using BTC for everyday purchases or mostly keeping it as savings.

Are there typical sayings/statements that every hardcore Bitcoiner understands?

Just putting it out there. Looking for ideas for a gift.

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Just read that US Treasury intervention in the bond markets have not worked and the yields climbed back up before the intervention. It’s obvious that the US Treasury is trying their best to reduce interest rates. I would not be surprised if they announce more of the same, failed intervention policies on Monday. Money printer is going to go into overdrive.

We’re going to the moon ????

I just bought more at 77k. I know it’s stupid but my nervous system is telling me to buy it. Wtfffffff!!

I mean, wtf. Nobody knows shit about fuck. Yet here we are again…

Damn, Bitcoin just keeps rising, will it hit $80000 today?

After Scott Bessents intervention and manipulation in the US debt market the US treasury and US dollar have most likely lost safe haven status. Money that used to flock here will now seek out alternative vehicles to put their capital that IS NOT CONTROLLED BY THE GOVERNMENT.

This is what Bitcoin was made to do. This is the moment Bitcoin has been waiting for since it was created. High how can it go? There is no ceiling on bitcoins price as long as the US government debases its currency and manipulates its debt.

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I sold all my BTC last week and bought SpaceX stock after Elon announced the Grok bot.

So naturally, because the universe absolutely loves rubbing my financial decisions in my face, Bitcoin is now destined to MOOOON!!

You’re welcome, guys. my sacrifice was necessary

If BTC goes vertical from here, just remember who made it possible!!! :')

A while ago I posted that maybe the days of those crazy 10% Bitcoin candles were behind us.

And now we’re casually getting back-to-back 7–8% days lol.

Love to see it.

Hopefully the momentum keeps going — more adoption, more inflows, more people getting exposure to Bitcoin.

Feels good seeing BTC move like BTC again.

Are you buying or waiting for a pull back because you were late to buy?

Am I one of the few that believes this is a pump and dump? It just feels like classic pump on news that will eventually be sold off into a new bottom? We've barely had a year of a bear market. Why is everyone seem so sure that was the bottom?

Had a somber thought, the people affected by the cold card exploit gotta be hurting right now. I know I would feel like absolute garbage right now if I lost my entire savings, 7 years of stacking and sacrificing to first lose it all and then watch as Bitcoin pumps 15K in two days.

Getting forced off the train, then watch it moon. I’m sorry brothers and sisters in btc.

The most expensive words in investing.

While I’m a long term BTC bull, I truly believe the bear market isn’t over. So far there’s been no confirmation of the bull market starting, or the bear market ending. Counter trend rallies should be expected, whichever way they present themselves.

This recent pump has been glorious but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see 58k again. Recently everyone has decided that the FED is now dovish/neutral and won’t increase rates this fall. But considering the impact of the treasury’s statements on their purchasing of 10 and 30 year bonds was erased in 24 hours, I think the FED might HAVE to be hawkish. And looking at what the FED minutes stated yesterday (everyone seems to have brushed it off because of the news of bond buybacks…how convenient), I think the FED is ready to be hawkish. I think the bonds showed that clearly the market doesn’t believe the administration has things under control and I believe they want to see the FED take action. That doesn’t guaranteed rate hikes, but even the threat of rate hikes is enough at this point. That said, if the FED becomes more hawkish, I think the September meeting can get spicy and considering the Clarity act might be a sell the news event, I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit one last low in September/October. Lining up perfectly with the 4 year cycle.

Now of course, no one knows anything for sure. But considering people have been so quick to call the bottom and bulls have been dancing on the graves of bears, I think this may be just another counter trend rally. One fuelled by an enormous amount of shorts.

I’m curious to hear your thoughts and add any factors you think I missed???? thanks for reading????

TLDR
- Just another counter trend rally fuelled by shorts
- Clarity act and September FOMC might be final leg down
- 4 year cycle could still be intact

All of a sudden it feels cheap.

Last week it barely felt worth 60k

Now it feels like it’s worth 100k at least

Wtf lol

1st rule: Never short Bitcoin.

2nd rule: Never wait for the bottom.

3rd rule: 4 year cycle is: Accumulation, Growth, Bubble, and Crash.

4th rule: DCA buy weekly/monthly during the Accumulation and Growth years.

5th rule: Sell a fixed number weekly/monthly during the Bubble year to lock in profit.

6th rule: Never sell more Bitcoin than you've bought each cycle. Ideally, leave half for the next cycle.

7th rule: Profits are taken from fools who think they don't have to follow the rules.

If you’ve never experienced a bitcoin bull market, nothing can prepare you for the sheer amount of dopamine your brain will have to contend with for such a protracted period of time, especially if you have a serious amount of money invested.

The price kept going up, FOR 3 YEARS, it was insane. There were weeks when my net worth leaped up 6 figures. I walked differently, I thought differently. When I noticed a bill was a little high, or my car had been door dinged, or I needed to otherwise pay for something unexpected I laughed it off. Nothing could touch me, It was drug-like.

Problems didn’t exist.

My job? Fuck it.

BITCOIN

We made it baby.

I never really had money growing up or in my twenties and early thirties. But I have money now. And no bitcoin bull market will ever hit as hard as the 23-25 run did for me ever again no matter how high the price goes.

But it will for the people new to Bitcoin, to them I say, I don’t know if it will continue straight into the bull from here, but hold on to your tits coz it’s gonna be a wild ride when it does.

… hence why the market is up, you’re welcome.

Jokes aside, I am going to be a proud homeowner soon so I guess there is that. I sold during the last bull cycle as well and paid off all my student loans as well as giving myself a good chunk of change I’ve been holding onto for a down payment on a house. In all honesty I only had a small amount of what I had been stacking over the years left and I decided to sell to give myself a bit more of a liquid savings cushion.

Thank you so much to BTC and to this community for enabling me to excel during such challenging global economic times. I hope this next bull run enables many of you the same way BTC has enabled me.

When bitcoin does +14% in 5 days, as it just did, I always feel like my stack is too small to really appreciate the pump and feel content.

But when bitcoin is really low, I cannot pull the trigger and really go all-in. Sure, I maintained my DCA all throughout the bear market, but I kept cash aside by fear of a yet stronger dip.

At least I didn't sell or interrupted my DCA, so I am not a paper hand, but I don't think I can consider myself a granite hand either. More like a wooden hand ahah

Who else does not feel fully satisfied seeing bitcoin pump like that ?

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I dca aggressive thank fuck, but why tf is btc back near the 70k range ?? Where are all the 55k people at now?

BTC’s move today was honestly wild.

The market looked pretty dead, then suddenly the upside starts accelerating and shorts get caught on the wrong side.

Once liquidations started kicking in, it became a snowball — shorts closing → more buying → higher price → more shorts getting squeezed.

Now I’m more interested in what happens after the dust settles.

Was this the start of something bigger, or just another leverage flush?

I know we’re supposed to thank someone for making the price go up.

All the signs were there. I feel sorry for the cycle bros who were waiting for $40k.

It turns out that fractals of past candles are not a good reference for how price will move in the future.

There will still be people in this thread unironically defending the notion that we get a 20% dump within the next 2 months.

EDIT: Eat shit, bears. I'm sure $40k will be right around the corner.

I am relatively new to the space, I honestly discovered Coinkite when the hack first happened. Obviously curiosity bit me and I went to their site (obviously didn't buy lol). It just made me sad, they seem to make genuinely cool BTC utilities for the masses and take their BTC maximalism seriously. Stuff like the satscard, the opendime, and yes even the coldcard itself.

It just sucks because some of this stuff is genuinely cool and useful but people aren't going to trust them.

I just hope they learn from this. From what I read they seemed a little cocky. But if they manage to survive as a company I do think they do make some cool things.

Please no hate, I'm just expressing how I feel.

Talking about: https://www.reddit.com/user/davebitcoin/

aka https://www.walletrecoveryservices.com/

aka https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-technician-unlocks-forgotten-crypto-171152427.html

if so, has anyone used his services recently?

also what happened to his TrustPilot profile?
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/walletrecoveryservices.com

Being slightly passionate about watches and bitcoin, I keep thinking about bitcoin in the same way I think about watches. Why did people need watches when they already knew whether it was morning, afternoon or evening?

The watch industry grew gradually because society became more dependent on precise time. Work, transport, productivity, efficiency and eventually competitive advantage made precision more valuable.
So why bitcoin now when we already have bank accounts, credit cards, loans and a financial system that mostly works?

I think that is a much more interesting way to approach bitcoin. Not “will the price go up?”, but what does bitcoin actually allow you to do or own that the existing system does not? And if you cannot answer that yet, maybe there is nothing wrong with simply not owning it yet.

I have a relatively large amount of cash set aside for Bitcoin. I already DCA weekly and plan to continue doing so, but over the last few weeks I’ve also been adding extra lump-sum buys.

I’m torn between three options:

Keep my normal weekly DCA and do nothing else

Split the remaining cash over the rest of the year (or bis November) and add small lump sums regularly and spend the whole amount within the next 2 months

Invest most or all of it now and forget about it

My biggest concern is sitting on a large cash position until October or later, only to see BTC much higher by then. On the other hand, I could invest everything now and watch the price be significantly lower in 6 months.

For those who have been in a similar situation, what strategy did you choose and why?

And of course, nobody knows. Just here exchanging some ideas.

And btw, remember that Lumping statistically beats DCA ;).

Cheers guys

I’ve been dca for the last 2 years every week, I’ve got a decent lump sum I want to drop into btc but I’m worried now is not the right time but I certainly don’t want this to take off and be left buying late….. again. Any thoughts ?

I am interested in crypto but I am a complete noob in this. I want some credible sources to learn about it. Can you help me in it pls?

This was the article I read that got me interested in Bitcoin. There's a bit in there about Gartner Hype Cycles which always stuck with with me and comes back during these 'boring' days, weeks and months.

The plateau persists for a prolonged period of time and forms, as Casey calls it, a “stable, boring low”. During the plateau, public interest in the technology will dwindle but it will continue to be developed and the collection of strong believers will slowly grow. A new base is then set for the next iteration of the hype cycle as external observers recognize the technology is not going away and that investing in it may not be as risky as it seemed during the crash phase of the cycle. The next iteration of the hype cycle will bring in a much larger set of adopters and be far greater in magnitude.

The full thing is well worth a read if you've lost some enthusiasm recently!

Stay strong out there folks.

Been sitting on this for a couple of days because I keep going back and forth on it.

We're about 49% off the October high, price has been glued to the mid 60s for weeks, and realized vol is about as dead as I've seen it. Everyone I know is either quietly DCAing or has just stopped opening the app.

Watched a Milk Road interview with Matt Crosby, onchain analyst, and his argument is basically that the capitulation already happened. He walks through several indicators that hit levels which historically only show up around bear market bottoms, and his take is that waiting for a clean $50K wick, or for an October bottom because "that's what usually happens," is anchoring to a pattern instead of reading the actual data.

The part I found more interesting than the number was the framing. Long bleed, then sideways at low volatility, is what bottoms look like in hindsight, and it never feels like an opportunity while you're sitting in it. Bottoms are boring, not dramatic.

Where I'm skeptical: onchain bottom signals have fired early plenty of times before. And most of those indicators were calibrated on cycles where BTC didn't have this much ETF and institutional flow underneath it. The holder base is structurally different now, so I'm not sure the historical comparisons carry the same weight they used to.

Real question for people who have been through more than one cycle: do you still weight onchain metrics for timing, or has that stopped being useful for you? And does this stretch feel like late 2022 to anyone, or is that just what we all want it to feel like?

I understand the vulnerability does not automatically compromise the wallet because the Safe 7 uses multiple security layers, but the hardware issue still concerns me.
Would you keep using the current Safe 7, or wait for the revised chip and upgrade? Do you think Trezor should offer existing owners an exchange or upgrade option?
Also curious what extra protection others recommend, such as a strong passphrase or multisig.

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With the block subsidy decreasing every halving, miners will eventually have to rely almost entirely on transaction fees. How do you envision the mining ecosystem adapting to ensure the network remains highly secure? Will Layer 2 solutions like Lightning reduce on-chain fees too much, or will large-scale institutional settlements keep the base layer fee market robust enough?

Since Bitcoin coin releases use a halving cycle will all of the Bitcoin ever fully be released or will it just get close to 100% but then the halving cycle goes into smaller and smaller pieces but never all of the Bitcoin?

What about for coins that release a percentage of coins in a time period (every year, month, etc.)? Will they ever release 100% of their coins or just close to 100%?

Id like to hear them!