I got into BTC this cycle, here is the playbook I have followed

I had not participated in Bitcoin prior to receiving $8.20 worth on January 01, 2025, as a reward from an app. I decided to sell that amount in July 2025 for $10.30.

Starting in November 2025, here is the play book I have followed: 1.) When the price is falling, double the previous purchase amount as denominated in USD each time the price falls roughly 5-7% and 2.) If the price bounces back up two to three purchase tiers, consider selling the tax lots which are in the green, then 3.) Continue doubling the previous tier purchase amount when the price begins falling again.

I've rounded things a bit to make it easier to read, but this is how the strategy has played out:

Buy $10.30 @ $97,000 [+.000106 BTC]

Buy $20.60 @ $92,480 [+.000222 BTC]

Buy $41.20 @ $87,980 [+.000468 BTC]

Buy $82.40 @ $82,940 [+.000993 BTC]

Sell $133.83 @ $91,610 [-.001461 BTC]

Buy $41.20 @ $87,800 [+.000469 BTC]

Sell $43.35 @ $92,600 [-.000469 BTC]

Buy $41.20 @ $86,990 [+.000473 BTC]

Buy $82.51 @ $83,710 [+.000986 BTC]

Buy $164.77 @ $77,680 [+.002121 BTC]

Buy $329.98 @ $72,290 [+.004564 BTC]

Buy $659.09 @ $67,800 [+.009720 BTC]

Buy $1,318.91 @ $62,350 [+.021153 BTC]

Current BTC stack: .039418 BTC

Average Cost: $66,810 per BTC

Today's Total Return: -10.4%

Today's Unrealized Loss: $275

Realized Gain: $12.38

Here is the plan going forward:

Limit Buy set at $56,900 -> purchase $2,640 worth of BTC

Limit Buy set at $50,100 -> purchase $5,280

Then, Halt buying and hold.

I think the plan has been solid so far to limit total losses to about 5-10% at any given time. The problem with the plan is that using a geometric growth rate (doubling the USD amount each purchase) is unsustainable unless there is a lot of un-tapped capital waiting on the sidelines.