HUGE mistake crypto investors make is trying to understand everything except Bitcoin

Biggest lesson I’ve learnt in 9 years of crypto is that almost everything worth understanding comes back to Bitcoin! I want to share it with YOU:

BTC is the bedrock of the entire market mainly because most assets are influenced by/traded in pairs with it, and because liquidity, sentiment and capital flows still orbit Bitcoin whether people like it or not.

I’ve watched people spend years chasing narratives etc, and I think that’s a mistake.

Everybody should start off in crypto with learning about Bitcoin and why it moves, what the halving cycle is, and what dominance means and why liquidity operates the way it does.

The reason Bitcoin’s so predictable isn’t by fluke. It’s because the most important variable affecting it is visible years in advance. Every 4 years the issuance of new Bitcoin is cut in half. The supply shock is hard coded into the protocol. Everyone knows it’s coming yet the market repeatedly underestimates the impact of reducing new supply entering circ.

Most people focus entirely on demand and end up obsessing over news, influencers, regs, and a load of macro events they would’ve been better off ignoring.

Instead they ignore the fact Bitcoin is one of the only assets in the world where future supply schedule is known with certainty decades in advance.

That doesn’t mean Bitcoin only goes up and it doesn’t mean every cycle is identical.

It means there are underlying mechanics driving the market that are literally predictable and that will help you time the bottoms and peaks.

One of the biggest lessons from 2024-2026 is that Bitcoin remained predictable while people’s assumptions about the rest of the market did not.

The halving worked and Bitcoin led the market exactly as it always has but what changed was the structure of liquidity surrounding it.

Bitcoin gains used to spill into the rest of the market through a highly reflexive cycle. Bitcoin would rise, profits would rotate into large caps, then mids, then small caps, and almost everything would go up regardless of quality.

We came to believe that this process was automatic…

It wasn’t!

The halving didn’t “break” and neither did Bitcoin; the liquidity structure simply changed.

Institutional capital entered through ETFs, custodians and regulated investment vehicles, so instead of circulating through the wider crypto ecosystem capital remained concentrated around Bitcoin itself.

The result was that Bitcoin continued behaving largely as expected while many people’s assumptions about alt season failed.

Bitcoin is not important because it guarantees that every coin will go up.

Bitcoin is important because it remains the central organising force of the entire market.

Most people spend their time trying to predict thousands of assets. I think that’s backwards.

If you understand Bitcoin you’re already studying the single most important variable in crypto.

The further I’ve gone into this industry the less interested I’ve become in altcoins and narratives and the more interested I’ve become in understanding Bitcoin itself. That’s where the signal is. Everything else is mostly noise.

Bitcoin is the closest thing this industry has to an investment thesis built on observable mechanics rather than hope.

The rest increasingly resembles speculation layered on top of whatever Bitcoin decides to do next.

You don’t need to understand ten thousand coins.

You do need to understand the one asset that ten thousand coins and market participants are reacting to.

We are now in a bear market and the bottom will likely be hit late q4 - early q1 2027.

Supply issuance will halve again in 2028, and like clockwork once difficulty adjusts, price will trend up again.

But because the liquidity has changed. That doesn’t mean your alts will also go up. They are now mostly unpredictable.

Maybe they always was, but it took for the heavy dilution and institutional capture we’ve seen for us to truly accept this.

So stick with bitcoin.

Time buys around cycle lows.

Hodl until post halving highs.

Enjoy sleeping at night knowing you aren’t going to lose your entire net worth gambling.

Oh, and don’t expect to get “rich”

You need big money to make big money, we are not early anymore.